Oil price history low, 2016 aviation industry will continue bonus period 贵州大学招生就业网

Low oil prices in 2016, the aviation industry will continue the bonus period picture source: visual oil prices continue to decline in China, air passenger demand is strong, the continuous warming of the National People’s travel abroad and other favorable factors, the aviation industry bonus period or extended to 2016. IATA expects that the profitability of the global aviation industry will continue to strengthen in 2016, net profit will reach 36 billion 300 million US dollars, net profit rate will increase to 5.1%, air passenger volume will increase to 3 billion 800 million passengers, and the number of routes will be about 54 thousand. In terms of the number of aircraft, in 2016 will increase by 3.9%, reaching 27 thousand and 900; global capacity increased by 7.1%, representing an increase of 5.5% over the same period last year. IATA analysis shows that the industry performance continues to be better, mainly affected by low oil prices, strong demand for air passenger transport, airline efficiency, higher passenger carrying factors. Aviation oil cost is currently the airline’s largest cost, has been occupied by airlines operating costs of three to 40%. In 2015, the international oil price continued to decline, which brought a bonus period for the development of the civil aviation industry. Supported by low oil prices, the media described the performance of China’s civil aviation in 2015 as "making a profit"". Dong Zhiyi, deputy director of the Civil Aviation Administration, said that in the first 11 months of 2015, the civil aviation industry achieved a profit of 54 billion 760 million yuan, an increase of 76.2%, a record high. Air China in January this year released annual forecasted announcement shows that 2015 net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies compared with the same period last year growth of 60%-80%. Low oil prices make operating costs lower, airlines are willing to more in the international routes and aircraft procurement layout. Martin consulting founder Mark D.Martin said in an interview, "fuel prices fell, and now operating costs are 14 of the previous two years, airlines are recovering investment in the aircraft."." According to the statistics of civil aviation bureau, in 2015, the number of international passenger traffic and the number of newly opened international routes increased by more than 30%. The international oil price trend in the future, China Cass graduate school dean, director of the international energy security research center Xiao Yong Huang of the "people’s Daily" analysis, from the long-term perspective, the main oil producing countries will continue to maintain a high yield, oil demand growth is still weak in a long time. The dollar will remain relatively strong, and the replacement capacity of new energy will continue to increase. These factors will not change significantly in 2016, so overall, oil prices will rise slowly in the short run. Venezuela oil economics expert Orlando Ochoa believes that oil prices are still at a low level in 2016, the oil price inflection point may not appear until 2017. This is undoubtedly good news for China’s aviation industry and even the global aviation industry. In addition, China’s commercial aircraft annual report predicts that in the next twenty years, China will continue to maintain relatively high speed of economic growth, and steady economic growth has also brought the development of air transport industry. It is estimated that the average annual growth rate of Chinese fleet is 5.5%, and the average annual growth rate of passenger turnover is 6.8%. By 2034, China’s passenger turnover will account for 16% of the world’s total. In addition to oil prices continue to decline, the state 油价历史低位 2016年航空业将延续红利期 图片来源:视觉中国   油价持续走低、航空客运需求强劲、国人海外游持续升温等多重因素利好,航空业的红利期或延续至2016年。   国际航空运输协会预计,2016年全球航空业盈利能力不断加强,净利润将达到363亿美元,净利润率增至5.1%;航空客运总量将增至38亿人次,航线数量约5.4万条。   在飞机数量方面,2016年将增长3.9%,达到2.79万架;全球产能增加7.1%,较去年同期增长5.5%。   国际航协分析显示,行业表现持续向好主要受到低油价、航空客运需求强劲、航空公司效率提升、载客率高等方面因素的影响。   航油成本目前是航空公司的第一大成本,一直以来占据航空公司运营成本的三至四成。2015年国际油价持续走低,给民航业的发展带来红利期。   受低油价的支持,有媒体对2015年中国民航的表现形容为“赚翻了”。民航局副局长董志毅表示,2015年前11个月全民航实现利润547.6亿元,同比增长76.2%,创下历史新高。国航今年1月发布的年度业绩预增公告显示,2015年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润与上年同期相比增长60%-80%。   低油价使得运营成本变低,航空公司愿意更多地在国际航线及飞机采购上布局。马丁咨询公司创始人Mark D.Martin在接受媒体采访时表示,“燃油价格下跌,现在的运营成本是前两年的1 4,航空公司正恢复对飞机的投资。”据民航局统计,2015年国际客运量和新开国际航线条数增速均在30%以上。   对于国际油价未来的走势,中国社科院研究生院院长、国际能源安全研究中心主任黄晓勇对《人民日报》分析称,从中长期看,主要产油国仍将维持较高产量,石油需求较长时间内仍增长乏力。美元将保持相对坚挺,新能源的替代能力还将持续增强。这些因素在2016年不会显著变化,因此总体看,短期内油价上涨乏力。   委内瑞拉石油经济专家奥兰多・奥乔亚认为,2016年油价仍处于较低水平,油价拐点可能到2017年才会出现。这对中国航空业乃至全球航空业来说无疑是个好消息。   另外,中国商用飞机年报预测,未来二十年中国将继续保持相对高速的经济增长速度,而稳步的经济增长也带来航空运输业的发展。预计中国机队年均增长率为5.5%,旅客周转量年均增长率为6.8%。到2034年,中国的旅客周转量将占全球的16%。   除油价持续走低外,国内出境游持续升温使得航空载客率增加,也对中国航空市场形成利好。   2015年中国出境旅游人数达到1.2亿人次,旅游花费1045亿美元。国家旅游局预计,2016年中国旅游入出境2.63亿人次,同比增长5%。   波音方面预测,2016年进出中国的国际远程市场将继续加速。2015年冬季整体增长达22%,其中中国的航空公司所占比例近40%。中国的航空公司有望在2016年实现在进出中国的远程市场中占到50%份额。   波音方面表示,中国是世界上首个年出境客流突破1亿人次的国家,同时仅有6%的中国公民持有护照,未来长期增长具有光明前景。   进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

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