but also involves the supply side reforms 胡祖六简历

Sw: recommended commodities and colored growth stocks oversold bounce line of sina finance Level2:A shares of sina finance client speed Kanpan: the most profitable investors in nonferrous metal company performance Outlook: 2015 annual report are under repair, optimistic about the future of commodity performance agencies: Shenwan Hong group Limited by Share Ltd researcher: Xu Ruoxu lithium related stocks eye-catching performance growing company, lower than expected, cyclical companies sharply pre cut or loss. Shenwan Hong nonferrous focus on tracking the 21 companies, only Tianqi lithium industry (+81%), Ganfeng lithium (+43%) and Wei Li billion (+82%) to benefit from the new energy automotive industry boom upgrade brings high growth performance in 2015, almost all other companies or lower than expected performance (including sea magnets (+38% 60%, lower than expected), NBTM (+29%, lower than expected growth of 40%), the white horse) or a sharp decline in profits (including Jiangxi copper (-71%), in south of the Five Ridges (-57%) and other traditional periodic goods) or direct losses (including the high-tech tungsten, Yunnan copper, etc.) is also reflected from the side of the weak the whole manufacturing cycle and upstream processing demand, the industry boom downturn. In 2015, almost all industry prices fell sharply, optimistic about the rebound in the two quarter of commodity prices. In addition to lithium carbonate cycles (with the average price rose 1.6 times, the fourth quarter rose 1.22 times), large and small metal metal all completed a drop of tungsten concentrate the annual average price fell 23%, the annual average price fell 40%, molybdenum concentrate indium annual average fell 61%, LME annual copper price fell 19% COMEX, gold fell 15%. In 2016, our commodities have emphasized in the strategy report in the rebound logic is the successful interpretation, including: (1) the market for the fed to raise interest rates in the future is expected to weaken or even QE4 representation; (2) large mining enterprises bankruptcy or mergers and acquisitions restructuring (US Horsehead to zinc producer filed for bankruptcy protection (3); the price of crude oil) central shift, at the bottom of confirmation. So, we still maintain the original judgment, the 3 factors of fermentation will enter the peak in the two quarter of 2016, when the rebound is the most violent commodity. Speculate the potential high transfer expected stocks, four new materials, Tian Tong shares. Due to the recent market volatility, stock price are the demands of the company tend to launch high transfer program to boost the stock price, including the scheme of Tianqi lithium industry has been published (10 to 28), Taiyuan (10 to 10), corundum (10 to 20), Yuguang Gold & lead. We speculate from the capital reserve per share, referring to the shareholders of listed companies holdings, announced other favorable conditions, we believe that the four new materials and Tiantong shares have potential high delivery expectations, attention. Maintain commodity rebound and growth stocks oversold rebound in the two main recommendation. The proposed bargain layout (silver intime resources fundamentals best), Yunlvgufen (tabbed colored rose standard, but also involves the supply side reforms), Luoping electric (pure zinc stocks; best) proposed active sea magnets on the bottom opening

申万:推荐大宗商品和有色成长股超跌反弹主线 新浪财经Level2:A股极速看盘 新浪财经客户端:最赚钱的投资者都在用   有色金属2015年年报前瞻:公司业绩多有下修,看好未来大宗商品表现   机构:申万宏源集团股份有限公司   研究员:徐若旭   锂相关个股表现抢眼,成长公司低于预期,周期类公司大幅预减或亏损。申万宏源有色重点跟踪的21家公司中,仅有天齐锂业(+81%)、赣锋锂业(+43%)和亿纬锂能(+82%)受益新能源汽车行业景气度提升带来2015年业绩高增长,几乎所有其他公司或业绩低于预期(包括正海磁材(+38%,低于预期60%)、东睦股份(+29%,低于预期40%)等成长白马)、或出现利润大幅下滑(包括江西铜业(-71%)、中金岭南(-57%)等传统周期品)或直接大幅亏损(包括中钨高新、云南铜业等),也从侧面反应出整个制造业和上游周期加工需求的疲软,行业景气度的低迷。   2015年几乎全行业价格重挫,看好二季度商品价格反弹。除了自带景气周期的碳酸锂(均价同比上涨1.6倍,四季度环比上涨1.22倍),所有的大金属、小金属均完成了惨烈的下跌——钨精矿全年均价下跌23%、钼精矿全年均价下跌40%、金属铟全年均价下跌61%、LME铜全年均价下跌19%、COMEX黄金下跌15%。进入2016年,我们曾经在策略报告里强调的大宗商品反弹的逻辑正在顺利演绎,包括:(1)市场对美联储未来加息的预期减弱甚至QE4再现;(2)大型矿山企业倒闭或兼并收购重组(美国Horsehead再生锌生产商申请破产保护);(3)原油价格中枢的上移,底部确认。所以我们依旧维持原先判断,上述3个因素的发酵将在2016年二季度进入峰值,届时也是大宗商品反弹最猛烈之时。   推测潜在高送转预期个股,四通新材、天通股份。由于近期市场波动加大,存在股价诉求的公司往往推出高送转方案来提振股价,已经公布方案的包括天齐锂业(10送28)、太原刚玉(10转10)、豫光金铅(10转20)等。我们从每股资本公积来推测,参考上市公司股东增持、公布其它利好等条件,我们认为四通新材和天通股份存在潜在的高送转预期,可以关注。   维持大宗商品反弹和成长股超跌反弹两条主线推荐。建议逢低布局银泰资源(白银有最好的基本面)、云铝股份(标签式的有色上涨标的,还牵扯到供给侧改革)、罗平锌电(纯粹股性最好);建议积极底部加仓正海磁材(16年30X)、太原刚玉(机器人自动化优质个股)、东睦股份(16年摊薄后25X)、楚江新材和亿纬锂能(增长超50%,16年40X)!我们认为进入3月份以后,大宗商品持续的价格修复将提振全球对风险偏好的提振和对未来经济的预期,这将显著修复ROE水平,推动相关个股上行。 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

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